Russia-Ukraine War - Ongoing Conflict and Complex Geopolitical Dynamics

In early 2014, conflict broke out in eastern Ukraine due to Russia's annexation of Crimea. Earlier, protests in Kiev against Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych's decision to reject a deal for greater economic integration with the European Union (EU) were met with violent state action. Protests escalated, resulting in Yanukovych's resignation in February 2014.

In March 2014, Russian troops occupied Crimea, citing the safety of Russian citizens and Russian speakers. Crimea was formally annexed after a disputed local referendum. The crisis deepened ethnic divisions, and pro-Russian separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk held referendums on their independence.

Armed conflict broke out in eastern Ukraine between Russian-backed forces and the Ukrainian army. Russia denied direct involvement, but Ukraine and NATO both reported Russian troop accumulation and cross-border shelling. The conflict came to a standstill due to regular shelling and skirmishes on the front lines.

In February 2015, negotiations began with the Minsk Agreement to end the violence, involving France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine. These efforts met with limited success. In 2016, NATO deployed battalions to Eastern Europe. The United States also sent tank brigades to Poland in 2017. In 2018, sanctions were imposed on Russian individuals and lethal weapons sales to Ukraine.

In October 2021, intelligence indicated a high probability of a large-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine. On February 24, 2022, Russian forces invaded Ukraine, citing demilitarization and denuclearization goals. Before the invasion, the US shared intelligence publicly and with allies to deter Russia.

The invasion led to sanctions and a UN resolution condemning Russia's actions. The conflict resulted in massive cyberattacks and Russia seizing several Ukrainian ports, affecting global food supplies. The Zaporizhia Nuclear Plant faced safety concerns, raising fears of a nuclear disaster.

By September 2022, Ukraine made territorial gains, pushing back Russian forces. However, Russia partially mobilized and captured four areas. The conflict strained global relations, affecting areas such as arms control, cyber security and energy security. This deepened the humanitarian crisis and disrupted aid delivery.

Recent developments

In early 2023, Putin launched an offensive but struggled to advance, leading to a prolonged siege of Bakhmut. In June a dam breach caused flooding in south-west Ukraine, for which there were allegations of responsibility. Ukraine launched a counteroffensive in June, aiming to recapture the territory but faced fierce resistance.

The US provided substantial military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine and increased troop presence in Europe. Russia sought support from countries like North Korea and Iran while continuing to sell oil and gas to India and China.

As of June 2023, the conflict has resulted in numerous civilian casualties, displacement and refugees. An internal challenge in Russia arose when Yevgeny Prigozhin led a rebellion against the Defense Ministry, further complicating the situation.